All it takes is the first domino falling.

“I suddenly had this feeling that everything was connected. It’s like I could see the whole thing, one long chain of events that stretched all the way back before Larkhill. I felt like I could see everything that happened, and everything that is going to happen. It was like a perfect pattern, laid out in front of me. And I realised we’re all part of it, and all trapped by it.”  - Inspector Finch, V for Vendetta

As you know if you’ve seen the movie, Finch is then asked “So do you know what’s about to happen?” and he responds with “No, it was a feeling. But I can guess”. This morning, at approximately 9:30am eastern I had that feeling. And I too have a guess. First, let me quickly recap where we are in the world right now (details on all of the above readily available at your favourite news source. I recommend checking a variety to get the most possible interpretations. And yes, that means the ones you disagree with too). All these events have happened since Jan 1 2010 unless otherwise specified.

-       Iran refused the West’s nuclear deal outright.

-       Russia confirms that the reactor that they are building will be completed in spring of this year.

-       China has stated that the Security Council has better things to worry about the Iranian nuclear aspirations.

-       In fear of an Israeli/American effort to destroy its nuclear aspirations, Iran has been very heavily arming and training its operatives in Syria, Lebanon and as much as possible Gaza. (since aprox 2004)

-       In fear of Iran completing its nuclear facilities, Israel or the US (most probably) took out an Iranian nuclear physicist, with no known ties to the program. Iran responds by attempting to assassinate Israeli envoy in Jordan. Failing.

-       The US is continuing its pullout from Iraq, and weakening the containment policy on Iran. (Since, well we all know when).

-       Hezbollah has received extremely effective anti-aircraft rockets, which Israel has stated for several years would cross a red-line. They were transported via Syria, where Hezbollah received training on how to operate the system. The missile defences have apparently been placed in the North part of Lebanon

-       Attempted terrorist attacks are foiled or fail on airlines in both the US and India. (Since Christmas 09)

-       Feb 12 is the anniversary of the death of a high ranking Hezbollah official in Damascus. Israel widely seen as responsible.

Busy 3 weeks huh? So that’s where we stand, as of today (this is what the Israeli newspapers were saying). So where do we go from here? There are a few simple facts that need to be addressed. First, Israel will not tolerate Hezbollah having any weaponry that can threaten its Air force. Second, Iran will not tolerate any disruption to its nuclear ambitions. Third, the divide between Eastern powers and Western powers is starting to grow, mostly based on the Western worlds desire to end the Iranian nuclear problem. Fourth, the Obama administration has seemingly decided to somewhat disengage in the region politically, realizing it’s more of a quicksand pit than mine field. Fifth, unlike in past mid-east conflicts, where Israel with western backing would take on (at least ideologically) the entire Muslim world, this time it appears both Jordan and Egypt will be behind Israel. As will Saudi Arabia. Militarily, maybe not. But politically and ideologically yes. This is a fundamental shift in the structural organization of the entire Middle East. Sixth; Israel has successfully developed anti missile defences for short and long range missiles (but not medium). This negates a large portion of the weaponry available to both Hamas and Hezbollah. And finally seventh; Troops from the IDF and Syrian armies are massing along their borders, as Hezbollah operatives are digging in and fortifying their positions.

Israel knows that any attack on Iran will be responded to by Hezbollah, Syria and Hamas. As such, part of the preparations for any attempt to take out the Iranian nuclear facilities must include plans to deal with the responses in both the north and central parts of the country. Until the missile defence was tested and ready, this part of the equation was missing. Given the time frame the Russians have placed on when at least one Nuclear reactor will be up and running, Israel knows if it’s going to act, it must be within the next 2-4 months at a maximum.

Now I’m going to get hypothetical and theoretical. The United States knows all the same things as Israel, they may deny it, but they know. Now, everyone has very strong opinions of what I’m going to talk about next. It’s a passionate subject that invokes strong reactions from people. So here’s where I ask you to take a step back and look at 2 things that we all know and hate a little differently, ignoring partisanship and previous assumptions as much as possible. If weapons and terrorist training techniques were coming from Iran, how would you contain that threat without getting into direct conflict which could spark a regional or even nuclear war? Simple, by making sure the borders of Iran are closed as much as possible. Take a look at what I mean. The Northern part of Iran, there isn’t much that can be done there. It borders the Sea, a bunch of former Soviet States and Turkey. Roads to nowhere but Russia (I’ll be coming back to that in a second), assuming Turkey actually is on the Western side of the equation as they claim to be (one can never truly know in these types of situations). The south is completely blocked by the Persian Gulf, which is controlled by NATO forces. However, going east (towards Pakistan, India and China) and West (towards Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Israel) are problems for the US’s allies, which include India, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Perhaps instead of the US’s widely accepted reasons for being in Iraq and Afghanistan and the lack of a reasonable explanation from either of the two recent US administrations of their desire to be in either country, perhaps both wars were an attempt to curtail Iranian exportation of terror and weapons and also to create a buffer to prevent Iran from getting involved in a war with Israel or even instigating a Pakistan/India conflict. If that is the case, why would the US decide to pull out of Iraq while staying in Afghanistan? Zoom out on the map a little further and we can see that Afghanistan is a bridge from Iran to China, and that other than that Afghanistan provides no real strategic value given that India is right there, and is on the cusp of super power status on the Western side of the equation.

Beyond that, despite a heavy presence in Iraq Kurdish rebels in Turkey, separatists and terrorists in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, as well as the continued arming of Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah suggest that the US’s presence has done nothing to curtail the exportation that the US was trying to avoid. Invading Iraq hasn’t helped Israeli or Saudi security. In fact, it’s possible it even harmed both nations by turning public opinion against them.

So given all that, do you know what’s going to happen? No, but I bet you have a guess. Israel has stated its missile defence system won’t be operational for 4-5 months still. My hunch is it’s up and running right now. The massing of troops, as well as machinery on all sides of the Lebanese/Syrian/Israeli borders suggests an acceptance on all sides of an unavoidable conflict. That Israeli public opinion has decided that it will not pay any price for Gilad Schalit (currently held hostage in Gaza) also plays a large role in the equation. Previously any action that could irritate Iran or Hamas was looked at through the lens of “will this harm our ability to negotiate Gilad back?”. Now that this lens has been removed, the metaphorical reins on the Israeli government by the citizens of Israel have been loosened. Unlike with Operation Cast Lead, domestic support for action against Iran is exceedingly high. So now that I’ve teased you long enough, my feeling on the sequence of events that are about to happen.

1)      There will be some very big booms in some very dark places in Iran

2)      Rockets from Lebanon and Gaza will begin to be fired. Not by the tens, but by the thousands.

3)      The IAF will attempt to suppress this fire, futilely. Ground troops will enter both regions within 48-72 hours of the attempt to destroy any and all Iranian nuclear capabilities.

4)      Syria will enter the fray, attempting to flank Israeli forces (as well as take the heat off Lebanon and Gaza). This will be the bloodiest part of the whole situation

5)      The 4^th intifada will begin in the West Bank. First against the Palestinian Authority for collaborating with Israel, then against Israel once the Israelis re-enter the West Bank to prevent Anarchy.

I am almost 100% sure on those first 5 steps. Once we step passed that though, things become murky. Or at least murkier. So bare with me on this.

6)      Jordan will be put temporarily in charge of the West Bank

7)      Iran will directly or indirectly attack US forces in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Hard. Casualties will be very high.

1. If directly, watch for possible Indian and Pakistani involvement
2. If in-directly, watch for possible Russian and Chinese involvement

The ones above I am closer to 60-75% sure about. All fairly likely scenarios, all logical responses given the various mitigating factors. The next level though are substantially less likely, and based on additional super-power involvement in the conflict

8)      During the course of the conflict, it becomes known to the governments of the various Western Powers that Russia and China are supplying weaponry and training to the Iranians. Tough talk ensues.

9)      Due to the regional destabilization and the world’s eyes not being on them specifically, a terrorist attack in India will prompt a military response against Pakistan.

10)  Due to tough fighting in Iraq, Saudi Arabian, Turkish and Egyptian forces will be pressed into battle, against fellow Muslims and Arab League states.

11)  The European states will withdrawal completely from the conflict, due to concerns domestically (terrorism, widespread lack of support for being involved in the first place), as well as regionally (Russia being seen as a threat again).

1. Key note: A lot of what happens with Russia and Europe depends on the Ukrainian election on Feb 7^th. Keep your eyes on it. The pro-west government elected in 2004 is in a tough fight with the pro-east challengers.

You’ll notice I’ve already devoted a lot of verbiage to this East/West conflict, but I haven’t really explained why this is an issue. Quickly: For most of the 20^th Century there were 2 super powers. First they were England and Germany, then the US and Russia. At the end of both struggles for world influence, the loser was very publicly humiliated. Germany was incapable of doing anything to attempt to regain superpower status considering what had happened in World War 2 (they knew they were wrong). Russia on the other hand, the people feel they were let down by incompetent government after incompetent government. Russia also happens to have tapped into MASSIVE Oil and Natural gas reserves, to re-establish it’s stature at a remarkable rate. As seen by their quasi-imperialistic moves in 2008 (the Georgian war, and the shutting down of Gas to Western Europe in February 2009), they want their title back.

China has also been on the cusp of Superpower status for quite some time. Now with regional support from Japan and calls for a pan-Asian currency, the time is right for them. As a society, they may be (or already have) peaked. If they are to maintain or strengthen their international position, the time for that is now. And of course, the US is at its weakest point since, well I don’t know. It’s vulnerable militarily, economically and socially. Superpowers are maintained by the strength and will of their citizens, and the US seems to be running low on those two key ingredients.

The time is ripe for a fundamental re-organization of the worlds real power supply. And ultimately, there is only one way to become a Superpower. To take out the last one (or in the case of England and the US have the last one step down and ask the next one to save it). That doesn’t mean total destruction, simply an assertion of dominance. Similar to a pride of lions in the wild. The dominant lion is constantly challenged by young up and comers (and wins), until the day comes about when a strong young lion challenges an aging tired one, and wins. The new winner then becomes head of the pride. The old one isn’t killed, simply (for lack of a better word) disgraced.

A strong showing by Iran in the direct or proxy wars would be the signal to any challengers of the US’s hegemony of power that the time is now. This is the real danger of an impending conflict. Should either of (or especially both of) China or Russia decides the time is right; a regional conflict can spread quickly. China and Russia are not pushovers, beating either of them head to head would be a massive achievement for the United States. Should they team up, it would be almost impossible for the US to win. This chain of events is exceedingly unlikely. But it is still possible, and beyond possible, very plausible.

Should guesses 8 to 11 come to pass, World War III or even nuclear war are on the table as potential outcomes. I don’t say this to scare or shock, simply as a matter of (potential) fact. A new world order could take place, a new balance of power established. Hell, a new economic balance will come as well. Remember the US owes China untolds amount of money and has been borrowing from them for years. Who is going to pay the cost for a serious war against 3-5 countries? The US is already in massive debt, has a GDP that’s less than its budget and is overstretched. The polarity of the world as we know it could fundamentally shift in the next year. Do I know this is what’s going to happen? “No, it was a feeling. But I can guess. With so much chaos, someone will do something stupid. And when they do, things will turn nasty.” I just hope I’m wrong.

I'll leave the assigning of the players to you

I want to avoid getting too political in this space, simply because as Simmons says, politics is a great way to alienate readers. But I’d also like to point out something. If you do not know who Gilad Shalit is, or do not follow Mid East politics I’d give this one a skip right now.

So if you’re still reading, I’m going to assume you are aware that Israel presented an offer to the German mediator that was 7 names off the list Hamas presented to the same mediator. Hamas is now looking at the offer to decide if one Israeli soldier (Shalit) is worth 450, or 458 Palestinians. However, Hamas is split. Hamas’ foreign bosses in Syria and Iran want Hamas to hold out. To not give up their best political card in the chess match with Israel. However Hamas leaders in Gaza are weary of fighting with Israel (mostly due to a lack of success. Which would be considered startling had there been previous success), they are starting to actually take into account the governing of the territory (which is a huge huge step in the right direction for the entire Middle East) and want to do what’s right for their people while getting the best deal possible. Since this offer has been presented an Israeli was shot dead while driving down the road (allegedly by members of a well known terrorist group affiliated with Fatah), 150 Hamas strongmen in the West Bank were arrested by Fatah. Israel found out the location of the alleged perpetrators of the murder and went to arrest them. They refused to surrender, chaos ensued, all 3 terrorists were killed. Now today a car bomb in Syria took out a senior Hamas leader. Syria where Hamas is discussing Israels most recent offer.

Now, it doesn’t take 2 hands a map and an industrial strength spotlight to see that someone is trying to destabilize Hamas’s position. But who? And why?

First possibility; well there’s Israel. The most unlikely party to be trying to undermine Hamas, since after 3 years of rockets, a brief war, tense negotiations and a blockade, it seems that the end goal of freeing Shalit is within site. Still, it is possible so let’s take a quick look. Israel wants to put pressure on Hamas to accept the deal, while also impressing upon Israel’s settlers the dangers they face, and how much they do need the IDF to be on their side. They ask Fatah to help set something up, which Fatah does (with the murder, then the arrests). Israel takes the opportunity to remove 2 or 3 senior lieutenants in Hamas (1 in the West Bank, 1 in Syria). Hamas is weakened and a bit scared, since it’s caught in the middle of something. Israel would be hoping that this fear would push them towards accepting the Shalit deal. Why I don’t think that’s too likely is there’s too many leaps in logic. Why would Israel deal with Fatah? Why would Fatah help Israel? How does this put any more pressure on Hamas than a 3 year blockade? It’s a bit of a stretch.

Next on the list would be Fatah. Let’s just say, they like the weakened position that Hamas has in Gaza. How they’re isolated and how they can’t REALLY influence Fatah’s control on the West Bank. Then let’s say Fatah started to see a world where Hamas could openly challenge it. Possibly causing civil war, or at least making life politically difficult for Fatah. So what do they do? Try and scare Hamas into hardening their stance. Again, not too likely. Fatah works too closely with Israel and the U.S. to be able to pull something like that off. No. There’s only 1 logical answer here.

Hamas did it to Hamas. Kind of. Hamas isn’t one solid entity. As I mentioned above there is the Gaza/West Bank Hamas, and there is the Syrian/Iranian providers to Hamas. Normally, Gaza/West Bank Hamas is subservient to the foreign leadership, however in recent years that relationship has strained somewhat. Especially after the brief Gaza War, when regular citizens and foot soldiers of Hamas saw their leadership sitting in Damascus making claims about how they welcome this fight and how well it’s going, when they themselves are the ones doing the dirty work (and losing). What we may well be seeing is infighting in Hamas ranks. The factions have long since been known (a quick google search can uncover those stories), and in all likelihood, as a deal becomes closer to a reality, the more hardline members of the party would be unhappy with what they see as Hamas capitulating to Israel. However the fact to take note of here, is that thus far at least, Palestinian Hamas hasn’t backed down. All indications still seem to be that they are leaning towards accepting the Shalit offer, and while there were the normal calls for revenge at the funeral of the 3 Palestinians in the West Bank, all has been quiet on the Western front for Israel.

This separation is one of the key sticking points to a future Palestinian state. As someone who lived in Israel for a few years, I can tell you that the vast majority of Israeli’s have no problem with a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank, so long as it’s interested in peace not just in the short term but long term. Israelis fear that Iran and Syria would just use a piece of territory that’s right in the heart of Israel as a launching platform for attacks and rockets. A justifiable fear considering the fact that if you heard on the news that a rocket hit Israel from Gaza you would be more surprised that it was newsworthy then that it happened. If Hamas can show it has the balls to stand up for its own citizens best interests, and actually take the business of governing a region seriously, the biggest roadblock on the roadmap to peace could be gone. We could be looking at a seminal moment in Mid East history, and we find out the answer this coming week.

But I can’t just run off without explaining why Iran and Syria wouldn’t want Hamas to accept the deal. Think of the entire Mid East as the highest stakes poker game imaginable. Everyone is constantly bluffing, everyone likes to be pot active, everyone is trying to think 2 or 3 moves ahead. Well, Hamas is sitting on a pair of aces. It HAS something over Israel right now. And that something could come in very handy in the event that retribution against Israel would ever be needed. Like, say, if Israel were to try and take out Iran’s nuclear programme. Having Shalit as insurance somewhere in Gaza is like Iran having a bullet proof vest. They know they can always threaten, or kill Shalit, which would probably collapse whatever government was running Israel at the time (bringing Shalit back is a bigger deal in Israel then you can imagine. I can’t properly explain it. Part of the social fabric of Israel is the deal between the Army and the mothers of the country that no matter what, all Sons or Daughters are to be brought home. And as safely as possible. There is no such thing as an accepted casualty or POW. Should something happen to Shalit after all these years, it would be seen as a violation of that social contract). If Hamas gives away that extra defence Iran has, suddenly Iran is a bit naked. They wouldn’t wield the same power or influence over Gaza, they wouldn’t have any insurance to prevent an Israeli attack, and Israel would also lose its fear of antagonizing Hamas TOO much to the point that they harm Shalit or at least harm negotiations. That means, Israel wouldn’t hesitate to put down any type of response from Gaza to an attack on Iran.

The fact that this is happening at the same time as there is wide spread civil disobedience going on in Iran, and at a time when it appears serious sanctions are about to economically cripple the country, and the current regime in Iran has to be feeling the heat. The walls are starting to close in so they have to act. Thus, attempting to destabilize Gaza AND the West Bank, as well as the negotiations going on in Syria.  The other bonus to Iran in that scenario is that international eyes move to the western part of the Middle East, instead of glaring media and international attention on the coming deadline for Iranian nuclear co-operation (5 days from now).

Now I’m not saying that this scenario IS what’s happening, but I can follow logic. In a chain of events that doesn’t seem to make sense the first step is to figure out who has the most to gain, the most to lose and there you have your prime suspect (or suspects). And this week, and probably for the next 5-6 months, Iran has EVERYTHING to lose, and its own existence to gain. Yep, it could be close to All-In time in the Persian Gulf.

The Doc

As a sports fan I have a long memory. I remember being 4 years old when the Jays won the pennant in 1989, sitting in the 2^nd row of the 500 level. My dad was so excited he threw me up in the air, and I was afraid of heights for the next 15 years of my life. I remember sitting in those same seats in 1991, watching the all star batting practice. Watching Fred Mcgriff hit the longest shot I can even imagine in Skydome (down the tunnel to the left of the Jumbotron in the 500 level. A MONSTER shot). I remember watching us play Oakland in 1992, and the White Sox in 1993. I remember being at my first World Series game, game 2 in 1993. Sitting so far from home plate I practically needed a telescope. I remember sitting 25 rows behind home plate with my dad when scrub Jeff Frye somehow, inconceivably, hit for the cycle. I remember sitting down the first base line with my mom when Roberto Alomar got angry about some calls and spat on an umpire. I remember watching Carlos Delgado, in his final games with the Jays, hit 4 home runs in one game, each one farther than the last. But my favourite memory is of the last game of the regular season in 1997.

It’d long been tradition in my family that we went to the home opener and closer every year. In 1997, the Jays had an interesting year. We had the Rocket, but not much else. On closing day, we had a rookie, a guy making his MLB debut on the mound. Some kid, only 22, that I’d never heard of before. The kid was dominant. With 2 outs and 2 strikes to batter 27, the crowd was in a frenzy. He hadn’t given up a hit yet, and was one strike away from the no-hitter. It wasn’t to be that day (the next pitch was deposited into the Jays bullpen. Clearing the wall by a scant 6 inches at best), but it was the start of something. It was the first time Toronto got to see the Doctor operate. In Toronto, we’ve been blessed to see some of the truly elite Hockey players come through. However outside of Hockey, we’ve seen very few truly elite, the best of the best, players on a regular basis. Sure we had Roger Clemons for 2 (great) years, but we all knew he was a rental. Same with Paul Moliter, and Ricky Henderson. We knew Hakeem was over the hill when we got him, and Vince, well he never really lived up to that potential. Carlos Delgado was great, but Halladay is something special.

Since the millennium, there has been no better pitcher in baseball. Every 5 days, the man would take the mound and the city would watch. It’s not like there were tons of reasons to watch the Jays for most of that time. Terrible team after terrible team, rebuilding year after rebuilding year. Underachieving guys after underachievers, but there was always Halladay. Every 5 days, you KNEW the Jays had a chance, no matter what else was going on. How many times has the line 9 Innings, 6 hits, 1 run, 115 pitches been in the paper after a Halladay start? Just masterful performances. And not just from some regular jock, but from a down to earth, hyper competitive nice guy. A guy who worked his ass off for everything he’s ever got. A guy whose work ethic inspires pitchers on his staff to work their arms to death (check out the health of Jays starters). It can’t be a coincidence. They just try to be like Doc, quietly work, never complain, go out there and do your job. And Halladay did the job.

My favourite Doc moment since that first start in 1997 was a start against the Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim California or whatever they’re called this year. Earlier this year, Halladay was cruising through a game, then in the 7^th kind of blew up. He gave up 4 runs and was at 100 pitches. I joked that he might come out for the 8^th, just because he was angry. He struck out the side in the 9^th, on his 133^th pitch. When he came out for the 8^th, the room went silent; none of us could believe it. When he struck out the first batter, we began cheering (in the living room). When the next batter grounded out, we kept it going. When Abreu struck out to the end inning, we were standing and cheering Halladay from my friends living room, thanking him for an incredible game. Then he came out for the 9^th. He’d already thrown in the neighbourhood of 120 pitches, and struck out 11. He’d already pretty well secured a 6-4 win. He’d already had a “Natural” type moment in the 8^th. Why come out for the 9^th? Simply to get revenge. To finish the job. Striking out Vladdy Guerrero, Tori Hunter and Izturis in the top of the 9^th was just…. otherworldly. By the last out I was back home (I came home during the Jays at bat in the 9^th), now I was in a room with my Mom and Dad, and none of us even had cheers left in us. I glanced around the room and saw that a few of us (myself included) were having problems with dust as the Jays swarmed out of the dugout to congratulate their ace. The game recap was basically an Ode to Doc, with quotes like

“He was as good as we’ve seen a pitcher in years, on both sides of the plate with good movement,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia said.

Angels outfielder Torii Hunter called Halladay “the best there is in the game right now” and said the man known as Doc lived up to his nickname.

“He was a doctor today,” Hunter said. “You have got to give it to him. He had surgery on all of us.”

“Then he just turned off the faucet again and finished the game,” Scioscia said. “He does so many things well out there on mound and finished his own ball game. That was impressive.”

The man didn’t just beat the Angels, he toyed with them, he dared them to challenge him. And when they did, he didn’t just beat them, he broke them. I could talk about the numbers, talk about the complete games, the innings pitched, the wins, the ERA, the WHIP, but you can look all that up. Everyone knows by the numbers how good he is. What the numbers don’t say is what he means to the Blue Jays, to the city of Toronto in general. Halladay is the first true super star that ever came to the city and stayed. He bleeds blue and white, loves the city, hates the Yankees and Red Sox. He took less money to stay here when his first contract was up, with an agreement from JP (Please don’t fire me) Riccardi that the Jays would actually try and compete. He also asked JP to never discuss contract issues or trades during the season, as it’s just a distraction. He’d rather wait till the offseason. Well, after JP removed his head from his nether region last year, fired John Gibbons and brought back Cito Gaston, it looked like it could actually happen.

From August of 2008 to mid June of 2009, the Jays were something like 27 games over .500, only needing some pitching help due to decimation from injuries. The Jays were relevant again. For the first time since 1993, there was hope in the city. Then the Jays went through a bit of a rough time (not unexpected when you have 1 starting pitcher and 4 subs), and what does JP do? He goes on every media outlet he can find to announce the Jays want to trade the Doc. Here the team is, 2 pieces away from real contention, and he wants to blow the team up. And not just blow the team up, trade the best player. After that, it was over.

See, people from outside Toronto couldn’t really understand. Halladay is a proud man. If nothing had happened, at the end of next year he probably would have given the Jays another home town discount and resigned here. Not anymore. When Halladay was interviewed during the home run derby, and said that the inevitable was true, that he will be traded, that his days as a Jay are numbered, I was in a friends basement. There were 9 of us there. The 9 of us could only agree on 2 things. Firstly, whatever team Halladay went to was our new “home” team. Second the Jays are dead to us. Here they are, finally close to being competitive again and the club slaps us fans in the face by not just blowing the team up, but nuking it. This is a knife to the gut. This move signals that the Jays don’t truly care about winning, about being competitive. They don’t care about what the fans think, or of taking care of the face of the franchise, the first (or second if Robby gets in) Hall of famer wearing a Jays hat. They just care about the bottom line. And in showing us their bottom line, they’ve hit ours. Those memories I have, they’re like the memories of the good times at the start of a bad relationship.

Sometimes you just have to start fresh. The Jays will always be my first love, and there’s still some players on the team I love (Aaron Hill immediately leaps to mind, as does Snyder and Lind), but I need a new start. I need a new home. It wasn’t an easy realization, nor was it an easy decision. I’ve laboured over it for the last 5 months, and I’ve narrowed my decision down to between Detroit and Baltimore. One of the 2 will be my new team. You can say what you like about the clubs and cities, but at least they try to win. At least they try and get good players. At least they respect their fans.

Thing is, it’s going to be very hard for me to not like the Phillies. I love the team, I love the city. I love Werth, I love Howard. But most of all, I love Doc. That’s the problem though. In trying to move on in my life, trying to get over this trade, I tried picturing Doc’s first start back in Toronto with Philly. My reaction to imagining him striking out the first Jay he faced? Gagging. Right there on the street. Threw up straight bile. It’s not always easy to move on, but sometimes it’s for the best. And I don’t know if sticking with the Jays in the long run is for the best. What I do know is that here I sit, getting progressively sadder the more I think back on everything. I FEEL like I’ve lost someone I love, despite never having met the man. I feel… cold. I’ve been a sports fanatic for 24 years. I’ve seen some dark days before, but this may well be the darkest. Hopefully the dawn is on the way. Until then though, let’s go Phillies! I just wish it were easier to say goodbye, and thanks. For everything.

Ahhh the good times

Sports are a precarious career choice. A lifetime of service can end at a moment’s notice. You’re competency is solely based on what you have done in the past few months. And accountability can be passed around to anyone, and eventually catches up to everyone. Unless the position you happen to hold is owner. Owners are exempt from the perils of sport, quit rightly. They’ve done their part for the team/franchise/city/sport by laying out x number of Millions or potentially even Billions of dollars. Yet, Owners can be as much a part of a failing franchise as anyone, and they are above the accountability, above the competency requirements. They have no boss. They get no job training. There are no evaluations. ESPN doesn’t come out with ownership rankings. Even in the most desperate of situations you rarely see fans publically blaming ownership. That only happens when a team hits such perilous lows that the owner is actually doing significant damage to the teams’ popularity and success for prolonged periods of time. You think I’m talking about Golden State, but I’m not. I’m talking about the ownership of the Toronto Argonauts.

If you’re still reading, thanks. Bear with me on this, I know it’s the CFL but ownership problems are basically the same in every sport. I’m sure most fans of any sport in any city will be able to relate to most of what we’re about to go over. Things like, repeatedly holding the city hostage for a new stadium. Sometimes, this is a serious thing and needs to be dealt with (Like the Sonics, or the Minnesota Twins). Sometimes a new building is needed to pad revenue streams. I think fans are very understanding of that. However, when you’re team is playing in a 18 year old venue that the team isn’t even paying rent for, then you’re just playing the fans for chumps. And after it fails once (The new outdoor 30 000 seat stadium at Downsview), why try it again (the BMO field debacle), or again (the York University debacle), or again (ANOTHER BMO field debacle).

The Argo’s owners came into the picture in 2004, saving the team from potential bankruptcy. At the time everyone thought these 2 developers (wealthy enough to have bid on the Phoenix Coyotes) had paid pretty big money to save the team. Then we found out they only paid $2 million. But it was OK because they won the Grey Cup their first year. Then the mismanagement started. Poor personnel decisions were the first step. Bad GM after Bad GM, bad coach after bad coach, bad vice pres after bad vice pres. These guys couldn’t do anything right. Step 2, lying about attendance. They hit stage 2 years ago, which as an Argo’s fan I find appalling. I was there back in the bad days of the 1990s when there were literally 14 000 people there. I know what 14 000 people in the Skydome looks like. Don’t insult me by trying to convince me that 14 000 people look like 26 000 people. Anyways once the owners realized that they were building a house of cards with the fake fan numbers, they realized (correctly) that moving to a more intimate, outdoor, more traditional CFL stadium was the way to go. First, they approached the city of Toronto about Downsview Park. The city said fine, go for it, we’ll even help. The Argos said no. They didn’t want ‘help’. They wanted a free stadium. Fine.

Then they decided they would get with the Canadian Soccer Federation (and later Maple Leaf Sports) and build a 30 000 seat field for the new MLS team in Toronto as well as the Under 20 World Cup that was coming. When the Argos found out their involvement would cost 15 Million dollars, they bailed, going to York University to try and find a field to be built there by taxpayer money and private donation. Once they realized that plan was doomed to fail, they tried to get back into the group with the soccer folk, who (rightly) told them to fuck themselves. So then all was quiet for about 2 years. Until yesterday. When once again they decided the Argos are going to need a new stadium, going so far as to say they hope to be playing at BMO Field next year. All the while, they missed the boat on the Pan-Am games stadium, which is going to the Hamilton Ticats. Wonderful. Now.

Obvious problem 1: The field is too small.

Obvious problem 2: It will cost 15 million to renovate the stadium to accommodate the larger field and crowd

Obvious problem 3: MLSE just paid for a brand new 3 million dollar grass pitch to be installed, which would be destroyed by football of the Canadian or American versions playing on it.

Obvious problem 4: Thanks to the previous fiasco with MLSE over BMO field (when it was being built); the 2 groups HATE each other. Given that MLSE controls the building that may be a problem

So basically, anyone with 2 eyes, 2 ears a nose and a mouth knows that this will never, ever happen. But that isn’t stopping the Argos owners! Nor is a survey conducted of the Argos season ticket holders asking if they’d like to play in BMO field, where the answer was overwhelmingly against the move. Forget the product on the field (which has been steadily declining since 2004 to the level of atrocious seen this past season); the product off the field has gotten bad enough that my father declined to renew his season tickets this year. The tickets that have been held by my dad, and my grandfather before him, since the early 1950’s.

If you’re keeping score at home, on the field the overall record of the Argos since they were bought by these developers is 47-58. Which doesn’t seem so bad. Until you remember that there are only 8 teams in the league, and the last time the Argonauts won more than 11 of the 18 games was in 1997. Which is bad. That doesn’t tell the whole story though. This year I was only able to go to 3 games. In only one of those 3 games was I treated to an offensive touchdown. Which is offensive (cue rim shot). The fact is that in the past 3 years the Argonauts, the oldest, and one of the most storied franchises in sports (snicker all you want Americans, but they were playing football up here since 1873) has only won 18 games. In 3 years.

But the on field product isn’t why my Dad isn’t taking the tickets this year. The mess off the field isn’t worth the price to see the game. And this is the unfortunate part. The CFL isn’t ingrained enough in Toronto to be able to deal with a situation like this long term. The old threat of the NFL replacing the CFL in Canada’s biggest city is looking more and more realistic as the years go on. While other CFL markets scoff at the notion that Toronto is needed in the CFL, well Toronto is needed in the CFL. Does TSN pay 40 million dollars for the TV rights if they aren’t hoping to tap into the Golden Horseshoe market? Of course not. What about the ad revenue? Like it or not, TV contracts and Ad revenue run sports leagues. That’s how the NFL is so dominant, and the MLB still holds so much sway despite declining attendance numbers. The CFL needs the Argo’s in Toronto. Is the problem an existential one? I would certainly say so considering a man whose love of the Argo’s matches my passion for the Raptors is for the first time in his 53 years on Earth, not going to be attending any (let alone all) home games. If even he is turned off… I don’t see how anyone can stay with them.

So what’s the solution here? The ineptitude needs to stop somewhere, but unfortunately Commissioners work for owners, not vice versa. The Commissioner is not in a position to force an owner to sell, as all Oakland Raider and Golden State Warrior and LA Clipper fans know. So what’s the next best thing? How about rounding up all the CFL owners and saying

“Look, as much as we all don’t like to hear it, we need a successful team in Toronto to keep our league relevant and successful. This stadium thing has been going on for 5 years now and hasn’t gotten resolved. The Argo’s have burned bridges with the Pan Am Games people, Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, even the city of Toronto. We are the last hope. Contribute what you can to a fund for a new stadium.”

It wouldn’t cost much! The city would gladly give the land, much like the BMO field deal (which only cost MLSE in the $20 million neighbourhood). Downsview Park is right on the subway, very convenient, in the middle of the city. If the CFL were to contribute $15 million, and the Argos another $10 million, plus get some money from the Federal Government for the whole cultural contribution BS, they could have a brand spanking new 35 000 seat stadium in 18 months. It’s not that hard. Just for some reason the Argos can’t seem to get their act together and do anything. And they are running out of time. The only thing keeping the NFL from Toronto is a lack of a 65 000 seat plus stadium (watch how fast that could get built if need be) and Ralph Wilson’s ventilator still being plugged in. And make no mistake, the NFL coming to Toronto would in a best case scenario cripple the Argonauts, if not kill them, or even the whole league.

I like the CFL, I like the NFL. I’m not going to sit here and tell you they are equal in terms of talent, or dollars, or anything really. But Canadian Football is entertaining. And beyond that, it’s unique. Something most people don’t know, but this is how American Football started. That’s right. The Canadian game helped birth the American one. This league is a major part of North American sports history. For it to be washed away after 130+ years due to ineptitude would be a real shame. It’s unfortunate that owners are above reproach in the sports hierarchy. It’s equally unfortunate that the Argo’s don’t have the kind of fan base that is capable of mobilizing enough to force a sale (something very, VERY difficult to do). But what’s most unfortunate is that while the owners are still trying to try everything they can do to make money, like holding the city and country hostage for a free new stadium, or at least a better deal at Skydome (where they already don’t pay rent), it’s the fans who are suffering. And it’s the fans that are being driven away. I don’t know how to fix this problem; I don’t. As someone who came up with a whole new structure for the NBA, this upsets me. There are no easy answer, but the Argos owners are still looking for shortcuts.